Thursday, May 22, 2008

Global Climatic Change: An Inconvenient, Unavoidable Truth

Folks...I'm so sick and tired of seeing folks who "steal" a phrase, like "global warming", and don't use critical thinking about it, BEFORE making their decision.

FACT: Global Climatic changes have occurred since the earth was formed, occurred for millions of years WITHOUT human accleration or decelleration, and WILL continue, probably LONG after humans are extinct.

FACT: Global Warming, is merely a "warming" phase of Global Climatic change.

FACT: Earth has been through many cyclical swings in warming and cooling...the last ice age...when Northern North America was covered in a glacier, created the Great Lakes.

FACT: We are currently in an "ice age", meaning, that many climates that are "cool" today, were once more tropical...this ALL occurred before humans were burning fossil fuels.

FACT: CO2 and other greenhouse gasses can, and do, contribute to a warmer climate. They did when huge amounts of volcanic action (waaaay before humans) left earth tropical even in the most northern reaches of the hemispheres. How did earth compensate? Well, not that I believe in Gaia theory...but with an abundance of CO2, came a florishing of plant life based on photosynthesis...which, uses, anyone, anyone, Buehler? That's right...CO2, as its major source of chemical reaction.

FACT: Many parts of North America, are more forested and green than BEFORE Europeans arrived (hmmmm, perhaps, because there's alot of CO2 around....hmmmmm, see a trend reoccurring here).

FACT: Humans tend to lend more credence to their impact on ANYTHING that is probably factually supportable.

FACT: Nuclear (pronounced New-klee-er) power produces the least amount of carbon (CO2) than any other power generation mechanism.

FACT: Old trees (over 50 years old) consume the LEAST amount of CO2...we should cut them all down, plant NEW trees, which consume greater amounts (sorry tree huggers, your emotional arguments just don't make "carbon management sense"...quit emoting, start thinking)

FACT: Buying a used, decent mileage vehicle, is WAYYY more carbon efficient than buying a hybrid, OR, buying an electric car.

FACT: Global warming is mostly a political mechanism, to get uniformed, emotional decision makers to vote for someone, or something...either with their vote, or their money. Global warming is a marketing scheme, first and foremost.

FACT: What we already do in North America, impacts the carbon scale much less than, say, a newly industrializing country, like China, which is now consumming HUGE amounts of oil and gas.

FACT: Gas prices are a function of demand. Industrializing third-world countries (like China) are demanding it...so...the price is going up...GOOD NEWS: Turns out the Chinese are pretty smart. They have been around, as a culture, for thousands of years longer than most civilizations. They can "see" that oil isn't going to be around long...ESPECIALLY if they continue to consume it like they are right now...so, what are they doing?

FACT: China is stepping up production of cheap solar and wind based power technologies. The price is dropping, simply because the demand for power in China is developing a business case to develop these technologies. Price per unit drops, when production and consumption is increased to the point where fixed costs are diluted by the number of units produced (basic MBA stuff...I know, I have one).

So...in conclusion:

1) Global warming, or better yet, the warming phase of global climate change is occuring right now.
2) Our greenhouse gas emmissions ARE accelerating this.
2a) Photosynthesizing plant life (trees, grass, bushes, etc...consume CO2)...they thrive in high greenhouse gas environments...just like they are now.
3) The source of those gases, coal, gasoline, are being consumed in a logrithmic fashion, by industrializing third-world countries (like China).
4) What we do in North American, pales, by orders of magnitude, what the Chinese do.
5) China sees that we are running out of fossil fuels, and is investing, HEAVILY in solar, wind, and nuclear power.
6) Once China has dropped the price of all these power below the cost of fossil fuels (next 5 years or so) who will pay a premium for fossil fuels anymore?
7) Once this happens, global climatic change will not only resume its march, without greenhouse gas emission acceleration, but, in fact, will accelerate the OTHER direction, as the increased number of photosynthesizing plants consume CO2 to levels that cause a rapid ice-age to occur. If you live in Cleveland, Ohio, like I do...you'd be smart to move to California, Texas, or Florida.

What will those who seek to control your behavior focus on then?

Regards,

Doc

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